The Choice of Shus Last Emperor Liu Shan: Historical Hypotheses Behind the Surrender

In the long history of the Three Kingdoms period, the choice made by Liu Shan, the last emperor of Shu Han, has always been a topic of heated discussion among historians and enthusiasts of the era. In 263 AD, facing immense pressure from the Wei Kingdom, Liu Shan chose to surrender and thus ended the history of Shu Han. However, the question of how long Shu Han could have lasted if Liu Shan had not chosen to surrender remains a historical hypothetical one, which will be explored in this article.

Firstly, it is crucial to analyze the national strength of Shu Han during the reign of Liu Shan. At that time, Shu Han had lost such outstanding ministers as Zhuge Liang, and both its domestic politics and economy faced severe challenges. Militarily, Shu Han's elite troops had suffered heavy losses during previous northern expeditions and were difficult to recover in a short period. Geographically, although the land of Shu was easy to defend but difficult to attack, the long-term warfare had depleted its national strength. In such a situation, even if Liu Shan had chosen to continue resisting, the situation of Shu Han would still have been unfavorable.

Secondly, the external pressure must be taken into consideration. The Wei Kingdom, under the leadership of Sima Yi and his son Sima Zhao, was prosperous and had a strong army. Led by Zhong Hui and Deng Ai, the Wei army launched fierce attacks against Shu Han. With such a disparity in strength, Shu Han's resistance would likely have been unsustainable. Even if Liu Shan had decided to hold on, Shu Han would have still struggled to withstand the offensive of the Wei army.

Furthermore, Liu Shan's personality and governance philosophy were also significant factors influencing his decision. Historically, Liu Shan was regarded as a weak-willed and indecisive monarch. In such a situation, he might have been more inclined to avoid the destruction and suffering brought by war and opted for surrender. If Liu Shan had been a resolute and decisive monarch, he might have chosen to continue resisting, but this would have contradicted his personality and governance style.

Finally, the wheel of history has moved forward, and we cannot accurately know how long Shu Han could have lasted if Liu Shan had chosen to resist. However, given the political, economic, and military situation at that time, Shu Han's situation was extremely difficult. Even if Liu Shan had resolutely resisted, Shu Han would still have faced great uncertainty in its future. Liu Shan's choice, though controversial among later generations, may have been made out of helplessness or to avoid further destruction and sacrifice at that specific historical moment. While historical hypotheses can never be verified, we can gain deeper understanding of the decisions and choices made during that era through analysis.

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